PDF Ebook Vertical Option Spreads, + Website: A Study of the 1.8 Standard Deviation Inflection Point, by Charles Conrick IV, Scott Hanson
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PDF Ebook Vertical Option Spreads, + Website: A Study of the 1.8 Standard Deviation Inflection Point, by Charles Conrick IV, Scott Hanson
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Make trades on vertical options spreads with the precision of a laser beam
Vertical Options Spreads is a combination of a bona-fide academic research-based study and a complete method to trade credit and debit spreads, along with other complex option combination trades such as iron condors and butterflies. Here, the author has accumulated five years of daily data on the ETF, SPY and provided historical evidence of actual win rates at specific multiples of entry points, both in time and price level. For example, traders will be able to use the weekly options, pick a level of risk and return desired, learn how to place the trade, and then discover the actual percent return that the trade would have yielded.
This must-have resource includes the basics of option trading and contains references to many excellent works by other authors that explore more about the intricacies of option mechanics and trading. It is far more than an analysis of one specific asset, SPY, featuring a study of probability theory and how it has applied to trading over the past five years, including the highly volatile 2007 to 2009 time frame and the more "normal" 2010 to 2012 time period. The book offer a thorough understanding of how price movement, actual volatility, and implied volatility all provide a complex but workable web in which the informed trader can generate excellent returns. However, the trader must have the discipline to act within the confines of probability and the "law" of large numbers refusing to place trades based on gut feelings or hunches.
- Offers high-probability based trading that uses the new weekly options
- Contains handy interactive worksheets that allow traders to select their own risk/return with precision
- Includes a website with daily and weekly information on the estimate of the actual standard deviation points on the price spectrum
Vertical Options Spreads offers traders a research-based guide for trading Standard & Poors 500 ETF, SPY using historic and estimated probabilities and returns that will give them an edge in the marketplace.
- Sales Rank: #2096076 in Books
- Brand: Brand: Wiley
- Published on: 2013-09-03
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.30" h x .92" w x 6.30" l, 1.00 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 256 pages
Features
- Used Book in Good Condition
From the Inside Flap
Modern financial markets are traded by talented individuals as well as large institutions with substantial resources. So if you're serious about making money in this arena, you need to find some sort of edge. Nobody understands this better than coauthors Charles Conrick IV and Scott Hanson. Both are experienced options traders who have worked in senior positions in finance and accounting, and are currently university professors in the field of finance.
In 2009, they set out to find a realistic trading edge and began researching a way to marry the concept of probability under finite time conditions to a rationally measured return. The introduction of the new weekly options issued by the CBOE in June 2010 provided the ideal vehicle for their concept.
Now, in Vertical Option Spreads: A Study of the 1.8 Standard Deviation Inflection Point, they share their hard-won knowledge with you and detail a rational system that combines the concept of probability with options trading to help maximize your return on capital risked. Opening with an informative discussion of the journey that led the authors to the "1.8 Standard Deviation Solution," this reliable resource quickly moves on to evaluate different trading platforms, ranging from their chosen spread trading platform, eOption, to more sophisticated ones. From there, it explains spreads—including the vertical spread, which is the workhorse of the 1.8 SD strategy—and iron condors, and provides a brief summary of the "Greeks."
The authors also take the time to review important elements of probability theory as well as Modern Portfolio theory to provide the proper grounding required for the assumptions of the 1.8 Standard Deviation Solution. With that information in hand, you'll be introduced to this powerful trading approach, where the vagaries of the market can be estimated under a very small margin of error and the probability of finding winning trades can be more effectively calculated. Along the way, you'll become familiar with Oracle's Crystal Ball (CB), and how it can be used to assess probabilities on various credit spreads using the Trading Spreadsheet (TS) provided in this book. It also expands on the use of CB with the TS on a number of different option positions.
A companion website has also been developed in conjunction with this book. It contains more examples of the probability calculations that the authors work with, some background information, and items related to weekly options trading.
No one can guarantee your trading success, but there are ways to put the odds in your favor. Let Vertical Option Spreads show you how.
From the Back Cover
Praise for Vertical Option Spreads
"An interesting read and practical how-to manual on harnessing the power of probability trading."
—Jerry Kensok, CFP�, President/Portfolio Manager, Lewis & Clark Fund Advisers, LLC
"Conrick and Hanson break new ground in applying Monte Carlo simulation techniques to the field of options trading. We're thrilled that Crystal Ball is featured prominently throughout the book as a way for traders to make sound decisions based solely on probability and without regard to market direction. I trust that the ideas and methods put forth in this book will become part of your good fortune."
—Eric Wainwright, Chief Architect, Crystal Ball Software Division, Oracle
"As a CPA and informed investor, I, like the authors, attempted a few investing techniques including use of technical indicators and fundamental financial analysis. My preferred approach was that of an intermediate term investor (weeks to months), and my results were inconsistent. The alternative approach detailed in this book offers a possible solution. The reliance on probabilities helps compensate for the various personal biases investors confront. Combining the rich data analysis with short (weekly) exposure windows presents an intriguing opportunity to manage risk. The power of this approach is further unlocked for each trader by allowing customization of risk tolerance for each trade as the situation merits."
—Joe Hanson, commercial banking officer
About the Author
Dr. CHARLES CONRICK IV has an extensive background in the business, finance, and trading environment. After a long career in investment planning and small to mid-size business valuation, he entered the academic world in 2002 and is now an Associate Professor of Finance at Dickinson State University in Dickinson, North Dakota. Charles has also been an active options trader for the past five years. He holds a Doctorate in Business Administration (DBA) from Argosy University with a double major in accounting and finance. He is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA), a Certified Public Accountant (CPA), and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP).
SCOTT HANSON is an accounting professor at a regional university and is an active trader in the options market. Prior to arriving in academia, he held several key financial positions in U.S. corporations and spent some time as an auditor with PricewaterhouseCoopers. Hanson is a CPA, and earned an MBA from Golden Gate University and a master's of accounting from the University of Georgia.
Most helpful customer reviews
11 of 14 people found the following review helpful.
Not Ready For Prime TIme
By rick cemer
I know a fair amount about options trading, in general, and credit spreads in particular because I trade them every day as a professional. I thought that this book would offer far more than it did. In fact it could have been written on about 20 pages including the Table of Contents and Index pages. The authors have you trading SPY ETF options using weekly options, a Delta of 10 or less, and a Standard Deviation of 1.8 Sigma which equates to roughly 92% probability that the options will expire Out-of-the-Money.
They also spend a lot of time touting Oracle's Crystall Ball program which is supposed to identify the best SPY contracts to use in the vertical spread. Page X of the Preface pages gives you a Username and Serial Number for the 180-day free trial (an Excel spreadsheet add-in) but I was unable to make the Username and Serial Number work. I called Oracle's Crystal Ball sales team and they said that they have been "having problems" with the information in the books that link to the Crystal Ball site at Oracle and were gracious enough to send me the software and a new license.
The author(s) also spend fair amount of time touting the virtues of eOption, a broker where you can trade options. Their commissions for options trades are reasonable (and negotiable) but not as good as other firms such as Interactive Brokers and ThinkorSwim. I much prefer (and use) the latter because I can set up the trade screen to show ATM, ITM, and OTM probabilities and any or all of the greeks, implied volatility and much more. For setting up a vertical credit spread I think ToS' order entry screen is superior to all others. As is their analysis page.
I have no doubt that the authors know the subject and what they're talking about but they take the reader through a forest of superfluous information in order to get to the bottom line which is trade bull put and bear credit spreads using weekly options with a Delta of less than 10 and an OTM probability of 92%.
I could not, in good conscience, recommend this book to anyone.
Best
7 of 9 people found the following review helpful.
Interesting, but where is the Website?
By Mark Weber
I have read many books on Options Trading Strategies and find this book to be average at best.
The subtitle of the book is "A Study of the 1.8 Standard Deviation Inflection Point". Very little time was spent explaining this critical part of the book, even though an entire chapter is devoted to it. The concept is talked about, but never explained.
Some of the chapters are interesting with some helpful ideas regarding money management and setting up the trades.
The most disappointing part of the book is it's offer of a free 180 day trial of Oracle's Crystal Ball Software and access to the authors website which promises some free additional information as well as more "goodies" for a subscription fee. The Problem is that neither of these sites allow you access, with Oracle not recognizing the "username" or "password" provided in the book. You are provided with a "password" for the author's website, but no username, so it also is useless. Tell me how to access these sites and I would be happy to add a few stars to my review.
I love trading Vertical Spreads and would not mind paying for the content they offer if I could only access it. The book "hooks" you from the beginning with all of these great ideas that are never explained. I guess some of us really never learn. If it's too good to be true................
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
Simple, Straightforward, and Insightful
By Arthur Nunez
I have been looking into different trading methods and I have been skeptical of the numerous claims that they have made because most are based on opinion whereas this trading method is based on a scientific process and analysis of a tremendous amount of data. The concept is very simple, and very successful. Casinos have been using this strategy for many years and they have been able to get enormous returns on their investments and finally someone has been able to use a great tool, Crystal Ball, and all its power to identify a way in which they can analyze the data and determine within 1.8 standard deviations what will happen and then be able to bet on that. With a 95% success rate as they state in the book I am intrigued thoroughly by this strategy and will begin looking into it more deeply and will be installing the Crystal Ball on my computer so that I can begin using this same strategy in my own investing. I cannot wait to see what my returns are over the course of the year and i am confident that they will be substantial, as long as i can avoid the psychological games that I can succumb to if I take too much account of the losses that are inevitable to happen.
See all 9 customer reviews...
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